| Iraq:
Assessment of US/UK PSYOP Campaign
 Author:
Brandon Watson (2 October 2002)
Posted: Jan 24, 2002
It has been correctly
suggested that there has been a war of misinformation at the forefront
of the most current psychological operation against Saddam Hussein
(henceforth 'Saddam') and Iraq. Mostly it has been wrongly concluded
in the media and legislates that it has been misinformation for
the purpose of guiding Saddam to believe the United States isn't
coming for a good long time. In fact it is the exact opposite, to
show Iraq that the US is coming, and coming quickly, regardless
of whether it truly acts tomorrow or next year. It is pressure building
upon other pressures, one section of a strategic 'symphony' designed
to eliminate the threat of a hostile regime in Iraq.
Background: Iraq has
very little in the way of an effective external intelligence agency,
and what they do have exists mostly in Arab communities (except
for sleeper agents in civilian jobs in the USA and Europe). As such,
they get a great deal of intelligence from the worldwide media outlets,
and from public government documents that the US government makes
readily available to anyone with an internet connection or mailing
address. They also have excellent intelligence about US troop movements
in the Arab world from their agents in the field.
What Bush and Blair have
done in this psyop is added to the most significant threat presentable
to Saddam without actually invading Iraq. Threats of war only go
so far, and are only traditional saber rattling that has been repeatedly
ignored by Saddam in the past. Actual acts in preparation for war
speak a much louder warning and speak not only to Saddam but also
to those in power under him. Asymmetrical/subtle acts speak the
loudest of all for they have the greatest psychological impact,
allowing the mind to delve into the horrors of speculation and the
panic of critical ignorance. The "information" the US/UK
have sent out (Blair's report on Iraq, Bush's speeches, US government
releases) has been released in a multifaceted attempt to do a few
different things, giving the US government options:
Firstly to try, 'one
last time', to coerce Saddam into unconditional weapons inspections,
free of bilateral resolutions (i.e. restricted access, announced
inspections). Of course Saddam will not comply to satisfaction,
issuing false weapons inventories and continuing to hide evidence
of his WMD programs. Trying 'one last time' is the most desirable
short-term goal, laying the way for the other tiers of the plan.
Secondly, to force Saddam
to relocate his WMDs from their staging areas to hidden storage
facilities where they cannot be used at a moment's notice (or found
by weapons inspectors). This could be a precursor to an actual invasion,
though this invasion remains the least desirable alternative.
Thirdly, to encourage
any susceptible factions in Iraq to oust Saddam lest the US and
coalition forces invade again. This will be the easiest and most
difficult goal, simultaneously. Easy in that those under
Saddam (and the majority of his military) will be privately eager
to destroy him lest a repeat of the Gulf War occur; Hard in that
Saddam is nothing short of diabolically clever and has avoided a
coup for more than a decade.
In his report, Blair
issued information to the world about the US that was clearly and
beyond the shadow of a doubt "misinformation". He stated
that the US was currently unprepared for war and would not be prepared
for at least six months. This is simply not true, as of this date
the US is fully prepared and could strike within two weeks. In addition
to this, the media has had a ball with the apparent destruction
of a US fleet by Iraqi missiles in a simulated war-game in the Middle
East. Many intelligence agencies worldwide understand exactly what
is being done here and why. Blair's purpose is to give Saddam a
very tangible reason to believe that serious and complex actions
are being undertaken in preparation for war, actions that are taken
traditionally only after a final and irrevocable decision for war
has been made. This action exists in the form of an apparently complex
misinformation campaign.
That it is indeed misinformation
is clear when you consider the information and couple it with the
points that I briefly illustrate here: strengthened military presence
of the US in various Arab countries, current ship and troop movements
to the Persian Gulf, renewed attacks from the air against targets
that impede a ground assault, and most beautifully, a botched war-game
coupled with an assertion by Blair that the US will not be prepared
for six months or more; all strategic 'lies' in what Saddam and
his generals see as deliberate misinformation.
Iraq has interpreted
all this very clearly as misinformation through their own careful
assessment and crosschecking of the facts. They understand such
information to be false. Bush and Blair have done well and cleverly
given it a guise of truth, associated with facts and tied to appearances
on the surface so that it would not appear to be too easy of a lie.
To Iraq's power brokers, though, the true situation of US military
readiness is well understood. They did not buy into the reports
of the US needing six months to prepare.
As for the war games
of a very advanced fleet in Iraq's backyard, Iraq is under no illusions
that its cruise missile force (small, poorly maintained, technically
inferior, very outdated) could sink more than a single US ship,
and that only by extreme luck. Its missile force is much more of
a local intimidation weapon than a true deterrent against an advanced
fleet. The war-games were a farce, intended only to add to the misinformation
campaign against Iraq, under the surface suggesting to Saddam and
his generals that an invasion is imminent (due to the US clumsily
trying to coax Saddam to an illusory overconfidence and relaxation
of military posture). Pressure building upon other pressures, muddying
the waters for others while the US continues to see with crystal
clarity.
As Saddam sees it, Bush
and Blair are going to great lengths to suggest to Iraq (and the
world) that the USA is not prepared for a ground war in Iraq, and
that US demands could not be backed up. Saddam feels that he is
being manipulated into refusing UN resolutions. To Saddam, this
would lead to a true invasion which is all the US is looking for
(and needs the excuse). Bush has still made very clear that the
USA will act independently of the world if need be, and there has
been purposeful disagreement in his Administration as to the viability
of this. The US has had troops and hardware in his neighborhood
for a decade, so renewed presence wouldn't startle him. We needed
something more, something subtle and tangible and terrible. The
misinformation is exactly that: psychological warfare. Simultaneously,
the US is using its infiltration of Iraq's neighbors to have a great
deal of pressure coming from recognized Islamic sources, also working
to create independent strong action against Saddam from other Arab
nations.
As the US government
has hoped, Saddam sees an intricate misinformation campaign, and
he has learned the lesson of 1991 in that misinformation is the
precursor to invasion. Not postured invasion or Clintonesque piecemeal
attacks, true invasion. Saddam can alleviate the apparently
decisive action being taken by the US simply by acceding to the
demands of the US and UN regarding weapons inspections (stage one).
He will juggle his WMDs into hidden storage where it is more difficult
to react swiftly (stage two). At this point it is probable that
the US will take decisive action to make it appear more likely than
ever that the US is coming regardless of Iraqi action because Saddam
is still in power and his cooperation is only lip service. Invasion
rumors will be leaked from the Administration, through allies or
through the US media. This will be done at a precise moment when
it is most likely that Saddam and his generals are hoping the US
won't be coming after all, that their clever actions have averted
catastrophe. The timing here is critical, and the US will shatter
those hopes in one fell swoop. (Saddam will have believed
that he could once again manipulate the US and UN into being indecisive
and idle; he has done this many times in the past and is quite expert
at it.) This will hopefully prompt an internal ousting of Saddam
(stage three), though this is not likely. Other Arab nations, however,
will undoubtedly take the bait and take some sort of action against
Saddam (whether this action will be firm is doubtful). If this still
cannot be brought to pass, actual US invasion is likely, and it
is hoped that the previous action of hiding his WMDs will ensure
that they are not able to launch on US troops or against Israel
on short notice. Israel's MD systems will defend against upwards
of 95% of launches. US ground troops will not have similar coverage
and would be more or less exposed, though current technologies protect
very effectively against chemical and biological weapon attacks.
Saddam may hold his own people hostage to ensure US military action
raises worldwide protest. It can be hoped that missile strikes and
the actions of Special Forces will destroy the majority of WMDs
while they are being prepared for deployment. Previously undisclosed
next-generation strategic weapons (depleted uranium rods and other
'silo busters') will possibly be deployed in a simultaneous satellite-coordinated
strike designed to devastate Iraq's prepared concrete launch facilities.
This is, of course, a
gamble on the part of Bush and Blair. Saddam has so far stalled
by agreeing to permit the UN weapons inspectors back into Iraq,
though he has not to date given up the bilateral resolutions against
surprise palace facility inspections. This is still not satisfactory
to the US. It was hoped that the psyop would cause Saddam to accede
to unilateral inspections and I maintain that he eventually will,
if only in words. It seems inevitable at this point. It is likewise
inevitable that the weapons inspections will be for naught other
than to alleviate much world protest against military action.
Eventually, it may in
fact require firm military ground action on the part of the US,
action that will hopefully take place against a confused and demoralized
Iraqi military government which has juggled its WMDs into hidden
storage and worn down its soldiers with months of tense war-readiness
against a superior foe. These soldiers remember BLU-82's and coordinated
air assaults from 1991 and have no desire to face them again. The
majority of Iraqi garrison's surrendered in 1991 upon merely being
notified by leaflets that they were to come under attack the next
day, or the next hour. Such is the effect of US weapons and tactics.
Unfortunately, Saddam's pride may well bring it to open war. Ideally,
the US will be invading a country that is immediately ready to surrender
due to sophisticated psyops and pre-emptive devastation of Iraqi
military elements.
** A note: There are
evidences which we ourselves can see which eliminate the question
as to whether this is in fact a purposeful misinformation campaign.
That this is a doubly or triply purposeful misinformation campaign,
as I have tried to illustrate, is more difficult to see and it can
only be, officially, conjecture. **
The basic evidence that
gives away the initial lie of the botched war game: For starters,
the US fleet is the most advanced in the world, practically impervious
to weapons technology predating 1990 (and almost as well defended
against everything else). Our training is the best ever developed,
refined to the level of mastery. In addition, our ships are protected
by multi-phased early warning systems and defensive weapons that
negate the capabilities of Iraqi conventional weapons. First are
the overflying AWACS-EWS aircraft, powerful electronic scanning/jamming
craft that "see" electronically for great distances. Incoming
objects are detected from the overflying AWACS from hundreds of
miles away. Those alone give ample reaction time to any developing
hostile situation.
Secondly, our fleets
are protected by cruisers with the AEGIS fleet defense system, a
system that can identify dozens of incoming tracks/hostiles, sending
this information digitally and in real-time to any ship or weapons
system in the fleet, coordinating responses faster than any commander
could through conventional communications. The AEGIS cruisers (and
most other ships in the fleet) have computer-directed Phalanx point-defense
cannons which can shoot down cruise missiles from great distances,
cycling 4500 shells per minute. Fire control is completely computerized
and therefore precise and accurate beyond non-automated means. The
cycle of fire is so rapid that Phalanx fire looks like lasers lancing
out into the sky. These are supplemented by other defensive systems
such as anti-missile rockets and electronic jamming gear. Any missile
hoping to hit a ship would have to be practically supersonic, electronically
shielded, advanced-computer guided and hugging the water closer
than ships could detect. Iraq is years away from such technology.
Iraq's cruise missile
force is based off of technology pre-1980. Their missile scientists
are deficient in expertise and have guidance systems that can really
only handle the flatness of the ocean. The earth, on the small scale
of a missile, is not spherical or even spheroid and very complicated
mathematical formulas are integral to guidance systems that can
handle the complicated terrain of any landmass. In addition, the
Iraqi's have neither the computer technology nor the satellite guidance
to aid their missiles in traversing land mass accurately. Therefore,
their cruise missiles are all essentially shore-launched water-skimmers.
These missiles are very easy to shoot down, and easy to see coming.
Other than that, the
US has strengthened its positions in the Persian Gulf, earmarked
large numbers of tanks/armored vehicles en route to Qatar and begun
deploying troops from Germany and other stations to the area. As
I mentioned previously, US planes have been destroying infrastructure
(power stations, communication lines, radar sets, etc), all necessary
components of any Iraqi defense. Saddam sees what we are wanting
him to see, a dramatic misinformation campaign covering actual surgical
air strikes and troop movements which indicate a very real and threatening
preparation for war. Hopefully, he will play his own part perfectly
and according to forecasts.
In conclusion, the psychological
warfare is working, thus far, completely according to plan. However,
because of the difficult nature of predicting individual behavior,
this operation must be founded upon probabilities and tentative
forecasts of future situations. As such, backup plans and safety
nets are inevitable.
Author: Brandon Watson
Contact: grayman0003@yahoo.com
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